Markets appear to be moving early to price in a June rate cut. The swaps indicator (which gives a lot of false positives) is well into rate cut territory. Even the more cautious 30-day bank bills rate is edging towards pricing in a rate cut in June.
The ASX Target Rate Tracker is presaging official interest rates at 2.5 per cent by October this year. I am less convinced. I think the RBA will have an eye to tradables inflation as the dollar falls.
More generally, the market nerves indicator is moving up.
But we are still along way off the GFC highs.