Perhaps no July rate cut

On the one hand, the ASX rate tracker has the probability of a 25 basis point cut to official interest rates in July at 78 per cent. There is a 22 per cent probability of no cut.

On the other hand, my preferred indicators - the 30 day bank accepted bills interest rate and the one month overnight indexed swaps - are both exhibiting behaviour that suggests no change to the RBA's official interest rates come the first Tuesday in July. Although to be fair, the OIS is a touch iffy.

As spreads, the data looks like ...