Sunday, July 1

Credit Aggregates

On Friday the RBA released the credit aggregates for May. The headline totals ...

The monthly and annual (through the year) growth rates were as follows. I have included housing twice in these charts: separately as owner-occupier and investor housing, and combined.

Looking at the monthly trends (using a Henderson moving average) the GFC and beyond growth story looks like ...

The chart that scares the bejesus out of the real estate industry is this one ... it demonstrates the historic low in the growth in lending for housing.

But it is not all downhill. While growth in owner-occupier housing continued to fall, investor housing may be on the way back up.

More importantly, business credit is growing (perhaps a real sign of improving business confidence).

And over all, aggregate credit growth is growing.

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