Friday, August 31

Credit Aggregates July 2012

The RBA has released the credits aggregates for July 2012. While credit is growing (albeit slowly by historical standards), it looks like a decline in the growth rate for business and a decline in the aggregate for personal credit. The drop in the business lending growth rate will be something to watch in the next release of this series.

Let's use a Henderson moving average to look at the trends ... the HMA is pretty much ignoring the last data point above in the owner-occupier housing series, and downplaying the last two data points for business credit - but as they say in the classics, "one data point is interesting, two is a coincidence, three is a trend".

Unpacking a littler further we see ...

The actual aggregates ...

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