It has been a couple of months since I have looked at the DEEWR payments data. While a little rough-and-ready, I have added two series together - Youth Allowance Other and New Start Total Recipients - as a proxy for the number of people who are unemployed.
This compares reasonably well with the ABS count of the number unemployed.
Let's use some seasonal adjustment to get past the seasonality of the data.
What has become clear in the two months since I last looked at this is that the number of people on DEEWR unemployment payments has been growing in recent months.
This growth appears consistent with the ABS trend.