Sunday, April 9

Dwelling unit approvals - boom or bust

Let's look at the 12 month rolling total for building approvals from the original series to get a sense of how the building boom is going in each state and territory.This measure is worth comparing with the monthly seasonally adjusted and trend series to test the sustainability and likely trajectory of the boom/bust scenario.

Summary: NSW and Vic are in boom. NT, Qld, Tas and WA are in bust. It's hard to call in SA and the ACT (though it looks like ACT might be heading to a bust).

Boom states:

Bust states:

Of the above "bust" charts, Queensland looks looks the best, but if we look at the monthly trend data, perhaps not.

Neither boom nor bust:

While the ACT might look like it is at the height of a boom, the trend monthly series suggests this boom has collapsed. As the monthly trend series can be volatile, I have chosen to lump the ACT in this no-mans land. However, but if the monthly trend continues downwards, then ACT building approvals have collapsed.

No comments:

Post a Comment