Spot prices
Front month futures
The Middle East Crude Differentials chart suggests that crude is largely flowing again, through a mix of bypass pipelines and selective Hormuz transits. The differentials we were seeing in March have largely eased.
Crude forward curves
Singapore finished product front month futures
The crack-spread charts are telling us that finished product has no pipeline workaround at scale. It needs tankers, and tankers through Hormuz still face war-risk premiums and selective transit. So the binding constraint is shipping the finished product, not the crude. Global refiners can't replace those cargoes at the right yield. The pain is being felt in diesel and jet fuel. Petrol is in glut (a barrel of petrol is cheaper than a barrel of crude).
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