Energy update

Crude still over $100 USD per barrel 

Independent trackers put daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz in the low teens, down from 100 to 125 a day before the war. US officials claim 30 to 40. With Brent still above \$100, the market appears to believe the trackers.

Natural gas in global short supply

Natural gas is a northern winter problem. Qatar is the world's second largest LNG exporter, supplying about a fifth of global seaborne LNG, and every cargo leaves through Hormuz. Europe and Asia are now bidding against each other for the cargoes that remain. The US is largely insulated because it has limited export capability. Extra American gas cannot reach the world market, and Henry Hub at \$2.91 reflects a domestic market with plenty of supply. 

Refineries: diesel and jet fuel scarce

Refined products are worse than crude. Singapore gasoil (diesel) is at \$182 a barrel and US Gulf jet fuel is fetching nearly \$89 over Brent, because the Gulf's export refineries sit behind the strait and the world is short of middle distillates in a way it is not short of petrol.

Australian wholesale prices higher

Australian prices typically follow the Singapore prices a week or so behind, with substantial increases at the bowser in September.