Saturday, October 03, 2026

Australia’s current account deficit is back. Should we care?

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Australia is a current-account deficit country again. Thirty years ago that sentence would have led the evening news. Today it barely rates ...
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Thursday, October 01, 2026

The Fragile Equilibrium

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Each month I have been reflecting on the war in Iran. In August I described the Iran war as a morass. It still is. But something important h...
Sunday, September 20, 2026

The era of cheap money is over

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Australia's neutral rate is going up, and I think it stays up. Two charts. Chart one : two proxies for nominal r*. The orange line is ...
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Energy update

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Crude still over $100 USD per barrel  Independent trackers put daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz in the low teens, down from 100 t...
Thursday, September 17, 2026

Thirty years of Australian monetary policy in six charts

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA, the Bank) has had an inflation target roughly since 1993. Thirty years is long enough to judge it. This ...
Monday, September 14, 2026

Seeing Australian r-star through different windows

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How do you estimate something you cannot observe? That is the basic problem with r-star, the neutral real interest rate. In the standard m...
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Tuesday, September 08, 2026

R-star as an international price

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I have written about r-star twice this year. The first post tried to pin down Australia's natural rate the standard way, a Holston-Laub...
3 comments: