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Saturday, December 13
Multi-factor Productivity (MFP): The Solow Residual
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The Puzzle In the late 1990s, something remarkable was happening to Australian productivity. Multi-factor productivity growth – the portion...
Friday, December 12
The case for RBA patience is getting stronger
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Markets may be leaning dovish, but the data no longer is. Labour supply is slowing, inflation is synchronising upward, and supply-side optim...
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Thursday, December 11
November Jobs: Market Caution May Be Misplaced
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Markets moved quickly to reprice RBA rate expectations after today's November labour force release. But in their rush to declare the eco...
Tuesday, December 9
The Neutral Rate Debate: What Comes After 15 Years of Emergency?
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Introduction Before 2008, nobody argued about the neutral interest rate. It was textbook macroeconomics: the neutral real rate (r) roughly e...
Saturday, December 6
Building a Toy Macro Model for Australia
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Bayesian approach to estimating NAIRU, potential output, and the output gap
Wednesday, November 19
Electoral calculus: The Coalition's Net-Zero Framing
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Let's assume that the Coalition's abandonment of the net zero target is rational positioning for electoral success. But note, while ...
Sunday, November 16
Labor's announcables vs architecture
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Australia's energy transition has been hobbled by three distinct failures: the Liberals' policy whiplash that achieves little , the ...
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