Net Permanent and Long-Term Arrivals

A quick note on why Net Permanent and Long-Term Arrivals (NPLT) is not a useful measure of Net Overseas Migration (NOM) - even though it gets quoted constantly (because it's timely and deliciously large). NPLT counts border crossings by stated intention (staying/leaving for 12+ months). The ABS explicitly cautions against treating it as a migration proxy: intentions shift, the 12-month rule produces double-counting, and it doesn't reconcile with the population. The following chart shows why this matters. Three measures of the ostensibly same thing:

Weekly update: energy prices

 Global benchmark prices

Updated weekly fuel prices

GDP Nowcast: Q1 2026

Summary

Australia's GDP is tracking +0.78% quarter-on-quarter (+2.93% through the year) based on data available as at 6 April 2026. If realised, this would be the strongest quarterly outcome in three quarters and would push annual growth to its highest since early 2023.

Updated Energy Benchmarks

Housing Tax Reform without Housing Reform

The Setup

The Albanese government is set to announce changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount in the May 12 budget. It will be framed as a landmark moment for housing affordability and intergenerational equity. It is neither. It is a modest tax adjustment to second-order mechanisms in a system whose first-order problems are not being touched.

Here is what the policy is, why it matters at the margin, and why it does little to fix housing purchase affordability and may even harm rental affordability.

Groupthink with a Group of One

Introduction

Before the war:

1. Iran didn't control the Strait of Hormuz. Now it does.
2. Iranian oil was sanctioned. Now it isn't.
3. Iran was not building a nuclear weapon. Now it will.
4. US bases in the Gulf were assets. Now they are liabilities.
5. US inflation was declining. Now it is increasing.

That five-point summary, from financial analyst @TheMaverickWS, is the most concise strategic audit of Operation Epic Fury yet written. Each point is directionally clear, even if the margins of some are debated. One note on point one: control doesn't require a physical blockade. Iran's missile threat has been sufficient to make the risk calculus unacceptable to insurers and ship operators alike. The result is functionally identical – traffic has stopped. Together the five points describe a war that has actively worsened the situation on every dimension it claimed to be addressing. File it away. We will return to it.