Wednesday, June 5

Hedged pessimism

Today's national accounts left me a little unimpressed. Let's look at some of the expenditure-volume measures. The chart that particularly caught my eye was two quarters of negative growth in real Gross National Expenditure. But it was not the only expenditure-volume chart that left me flat. Domestic final demand is in the doldrums. As is private gross fixed capital formation. Even growth in household final consumption expenditure is weak by historical standards. My reading is a sick domestic economy, propped up by (mineral) exports and falling imports.

Another story that caught my eye was the state-by-state final demand charts; none of which are going gangbusters. Queensland and NSW are slowing. Growth in Victoria is looking shabby. The NT and the West look to be on a quick descent into a world of pain (perhaps: what the mining boom giveth, the mining boom hath taken away). This is WA's second quarter of negative growth. South Australia is in its third quarter of negative growth. Tasmania's contraction continues (count them: that's six quarters of negative growth).


  1. awesome -- nice to have you back. i linked back to this from my (similar) post

  2. and he is in of course. And you are late RA!