TL;DR
- Macroeconomics is a science - but a fragile, conditional one. It is a social science, not a natural science like physics or chemistry.
- The right test isn't Popper's falsifiability but Lakatos's question: is the dominant research programme generating new, empirically confirmed insights - or just patching failures?
- We should trust macroeconomists on mechanisms and trade-offs, be sceptical of precise forecasts, and be honest about where technical analysis ends and political judgement begins.
