Every month, DEEWR publishes its Monthly Leading Indicator of Employment. It is designed to give advance warning of turning points in cyclical employment. The average lead time of the Indicator (i.e., the time between a peak or trough in the Indicator and the corresponding peak or trough in cyclical employment) is around nine months.
A ‘turning point’ in the Indicator is said to be confirmed when there
are six consecutive monthly movements in the same direction after the
turning point. With the May print of the series, we now have five
consecutive prints in the negative direction.