Wednesday, May 23

The DEEWR leading indicator

Every month, DEEWR publishes its Monthly Leading Indicator of Employment. It is designed to give advance warning of turning points in cyclical employment. The average lead time of the Indicator (i.e., the time between a peak or trough in the Indicator and the corresponding peak or trough in cyclical employment) is around nine months.

A ‘turning point’ in the Indicator is said to be confirmed when there are six consecutive monthly movements in the same direction after the turning point. With the May print of the series, we now have five consecutive prints in the negative direction.

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