Wednesday, September 5

Tax insights from the national accounts

Table 18 of the National Accounts gives us a window on government revenue. The growth rate in the revenue from the various sectors of the economy gives an indication on whether those sectors are doing well or not. I will limit the following analysis to the GFC and subsequent years - and those categories I found a little interesting.

Note: the usual caveats apply. Tax rules are constantly changing. Consequently, changes in the data need to be interpreted carefully.

The punters are paying ever more personal income tax. This probably reflects wage growth and the ongoing relatively low unemployment rate by historical standards. It is interesting to see the dip and recovery in the fringe benefits tax; it suggests the executives' perquisites have been restored.

But business tax ain't looking so hot. This points to significant revenue issues for the government.

Not surprisingly, payroll tax tells a similar story to income tax above. I suspect for similar reasons.

Does this land tax curve reflect a flatish housing market since 2010?

The next chart on municipal and metropolitan improvement rates is more positive than I was expecting.

Not quite sure what to make of this flat line since 2010.

The next chart suggest that growth in consumption has flattened. It also points to a state revenue base that is growing much more slowly than prior to the GFC.

As you can see on the growth chart - since mid 2010 this has been low by historical standards.

Not sure whether the recent downturn in excise relates to alcohol, tobacco or fuel. Something to ponder.

I included this next chart, because it may point to a reduction in gambling over the past 12 months.

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