Australian productivity has gone backwards since 2019. Unit labour costs are running ten points above the United States from a common base. The goods trade balance in trend-terms has fallen from above 13 billion dollars a month at the 2022 peak to barely 3 billion, with the latest print briefly negative. Inflation has reaccelerated above the target band on every measure. By any fundamental read, the Australian dollar should be weakening. It isn't. It has rallied from briefly below 0.60 last year to above 0.72 now and the trend is looking up.
The answer is the carry. Everything else is detail.