A quick note on why Net Permanent and Long-Term Arrivals (NPLT) is not a useful measure of Net Overseas Migration (NOM) - even though it gets quoted constantly (because it's timely and deliciously large).
NPLT counts border crossings by stated intention (staying/leaving for 12+ months). The ABS explicitly cautions against treating it as a migration proxy: intentions shift, the 12-month rule produces double-counting, and it doesn't reconcile with the population.
The following chart shows why this matters. Three measures of the ostensibly same thing:
- Net permanent and long term arrivals (green): 478k
- Net Overseas Migration (blue): 310k
- Net arrivals, smoothed (orange): 289k
NPLT is running ~170k/year above the measures that actually tie back to how many people are in the country. When NPLT and Net overseas migration (NOM) disagree this much, NOM wins. It's the one the population accounts balance to.
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