We have heard it many times before: the United States is on the verge of a deal with Iran. Trump has announced breakthroughs that never materialised, and markets have learned to discount the rhetoric. This time appears different, and for one concrete reason. The progress is no longer just a presidential claim. On June 12, Pakistan, the mediator that brokered the ceasefire, publicly confirmed that both sides had agreed on the final text of the memorandum of understanding, the so-called Islamabad Declaration. A signing venue in Geneva is being arranged. Agreed text confirmed by a third-party government is a different animal from another "soon" on Truth Social, even if Tehran is still careful to stress that nothing is final until it is signed. My take: more believable this time, but let's see if it is actually signed.
Crude
Crude prices are reading it as optimism. Both benchmarks have rolled over from their May highs, with WTI settling at \$84.88 and Brent at \$87.33 to close the week.
Gas and Urea
One event, three reactions. Oil is buying the deal and shedding its risk premium. Gas reacts sharply to each twist but stays structurally elevated, because the Hormuz closure knocked out Qatari supply that a signing won't instantly restore. Urea has already broken sharply lower. The split comes down to physical exposure: oil's premium can evaporate on a headline, but a bomb-damaged LNG plant cannot.
Refined product
Refined products tell the same story as crude, only louder. Singapore gasoil sits at \$133 and Mogas 92 at \$114, both well off their post-Hormuz peaks but still far above their January levels, and the crack spreads confirm it is a refining story rather than a crude one: gasoil's premium over Brent remains near $46, roughly double its pre-crisis level, because the Hormuz disruption hit Middle East refined-product exports directly. The forward curve is the tell, though. It is steeply backwardated, with gasoil falling from \$133 spot toward \$95 by 2029 and petrol flipping from backwardation into contango, meaning the market expects today's tightness to fully unwind as supply normalises.
Australian Terminal Gate
If there is a peace deal, I would expect the Fuel Excise reduction will not be extended when it ends on 30 June 2026.
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