Saturday, August 29, 2026

Australia has an inflation problem

 Underlying inflation is running at 4.9% annualised and climbing.

Not the annual print. That one is contaminated by base effects, so a "jump" can just mean a soft month a year ago dropped out of the window.

Not the monthly print. Even the trimmed mean is too noisy to read one month at a time.

This is a Henderson trend through annualised monthly growth. Trimmed mean 4.9%, weighted median 4.4%. The target band is 2 to 3.

We have an inflation problem now, not a year ago. The turning point was in January/February.

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