DEEWR Leading Indicator

Every month, DEEWR publishes its Monthly Leading Indicator of Employment. It is designed to give advance warning of turning points in cyclical employment. The average lead time of the Indicator (i.e., the time between a peak or trough in the Indicator and the corresponding peak or trough in cyclical employment) is around nine months.

A ‘turning point’ in the Indicator is said to be confirmed when there are six consecutive monthly movements in the same direction after the turning point. With the April print of the series, we now have four consecutive prints in the negative direction.

DEEWR advises, "Users of the Indicator must also be aware that historical relationships between the Indicator and employment can vary from time to time. Judgements about the future levels of, and changes in, employment derived from the Leading Indicator should therefore be qualified appropriately".

Some churlish folks might observe that the leading indicator is looking just a little like a trailing indicator at the moment.